My Newz 'n Ideas

It is my intent to express my opinion and to discuss current events. Feel free to make suggestions to fields you would like to see covered, and I will consider them. Please leave your name with comments. Thank you. Arabic: عربي.

Saturday, May 14, 2005

New Death Toll for Iraq

Another report from Instapundit reveals something quite interesting. Indeed. The UN, which took their survey of over 21,600 households of the entire 18 provinces (the Lancet Report surveyed 808 households of 11 provinces), took this survey last year. Unlike the Lancet Report which was released before the Presidential election, it was released yesterday and is receiving no attention.
The ICLS data indicates 24,000 deaths, with a 95 per cent confidence interval from 18,000 to 29,000 deaths. The confidence level was estimated using a linearisation technique (using SPSS Complex Samples, version 12).

Another source (Roberts et al 2004) [the Lancet report] estimates the number to be 98,000, with a confidence interval of 8,000 to 194,000. The website “Iraq Body Count” estimates that between 14,619 and 16,804 deaths have occurred between the beginning of 2003 and 7 December 2004.
Now how can that be? There is no election due. For more information, please click on Instapundit. Thanks, and have a great day.

PS. One bit of wisdom: If you have two numbers that are not within the 3-5% range of error (between 8,000-98,000), throw it out. It is not reliable.

If you have noticed that I removed some math, that is because I came to believe it inappropriate due to the fact we do not need to argue while people are dying. I would like to thank BRS for showing me my error.